Klimaatgeneraal: Klimaatverandering als Nieuwe Vijand?


May 17, 2023 | 13:00 - 14:00

Room for Discussion podium

🇳🇱

This interview is in Dutch

✨ This summary and transcript were automatically generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.

Summary

In this interview, Tom Middendorp, former commander of the Dutch armed forces, discusses the intersection of climate change and security. He shares insights from his career, highlighting how climate change acts as a risk multiplier in conflict zones and emphasizes the importance of addressing root causes of conflicts. Middendorp also discusses the need for the military to adopt sustainable practices and how climate change should be a central theme in security policies.

Speakers: Tom Middendorp, Elias Marseille, Morwenna Heemstra

Read full transcript
Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

The most important development for security in the world After a nuclear war between nuclear powers, this is probably the most important development for security in the world. That is the message of our guest today. In his career of more than 38 years at Defense, he was sent to, among others, Mali, Afghanistan and Somalia. As a combatant commander, he had to carry out major reconstructions in the army. And during this period, something really started to bother him. Wasn't the new big enemy climate change? Well, and that doubt resulted in the following book, Climate General, in which Mr. Middendorp puts the first relationship between our security and climate change. But who is this man who has written a whole book about a relationship that we have not seen before? Well, to explain that to us, he himself is here today, former commander of the forces of the Netherlands, General Tom Middendorp. Welcome. Good day. Welcome. Hi. So, nice to have you here.

Tom Middendorp

Yes, very nice. Nice to be here. Yes. Well, in preparation for this interview, of course, we have completely plunged into the world of defense and we have been told everything about military habits. We have heard that t-shirts should be folded quite wide and the bed should be made tight. What habits did you keep?

Tom Middendorp

What what? What habits did you keep? Habits? Well, I had to clean up my mess a bit better, because I had to learn that as well. Yes. When I first came to the defense, you had to set up your closet and everything had to be folded as standard. Especially in the 1970s, that was still very important.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Are you a bit more relaxed now?

Tom Middendorp

It was getting used to it. Yes, getting used to it. You are a bit more relaxed now, as far as that is concerned. I was never that good at folding clothes, so I'm still not that good at it. So I often got that wrong. Yes.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Why did you make that choice to go to the defense?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, I get that question more often, and I think back to that. I think at that moment, I had signed up for the TU Delft to study there, but I said to myself, I don't think that's enough, I want more. I want to be challenged more. And then a friend said to me, who maybe saw that in me, well, isn't the KAMA for you? Yes. The Military Academy. And then I thought, hey, maybe. So I started talking. And one thing led to another. And looking back, I think I unconsciously was looking for work where I could have an added value, also for society and for the Netherlands. That I wanted to do more than a job where I could earn money. I think if I had gone to civil society, I could have earned ten times as much, but for me that was less relevant. I just wanted to do work that gave me satisfaction and had meaning. For me, defence was an experiment. If something like that didn't work anymore, I'd be gone. Because I didn't feel like a typical soldier.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Why not?

Tom Middendorp

Sorry?

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Why not?

Tom Middendorp

Well, I'm not the kind of person who likes to walk on the shooting range and shoot. No, that's nothing for me. But most soldiers, I found out, don't really like fighting. They fight because it's necessary, they fight because they see the need, but not because they like it. I had that too, and I recognised that in many other soldiers. But the reason why many soldiers do this work is because they see the need for their work, because it's very grateful work, and because they experience all over the world what a huge luxury we have, that we can have these kinds of discussions here, that we have this education, that we live in such a rich society. That's quite unique in the world. And in many places in the world, that's not the case at all. And with our work, we can help those people. And that's really rewarding.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Yes. You just had a brilliant career at Defensie. You've been there for almost 38 years. What do you miss about that time?

Tom Middendorp

The camaraderie, the humour. I just had a great time. The book is closed for me, the time is over. I also don't have a home, I wouldn't want to go back. There are new people now, they just have to do their thing. But I'd love to go back to that book. I still have a whole box of photos and memories at home. Not that I'm going to look in there every time, but it's just a wonderful experience. And I would do it again.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

You're starting to shine when we ask you.

Tom Middendorp

Yes. That's really for you. Yes, it's a kind of second family. And you notice that with a lot of soldiers who come there. The camaraderie you find there, and how you work together in life, how you tackle tasks together, you won't find anywhere else. Most soldiers stay there for 10 or 20 years, and then they go back to work. And they all miss this. They all miss the camaraderie, the bond, going together for one goal, taking responsibility together, and the challenge that's there. They often talk about that.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Because you had to take responsibility early on, we read. Your mother passed away quite young in your life. And then you had to run the household yourself. Is that what you learned to take responsibility for? Maybe also out of necessity?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, I come from a family that didn't have much. My father was a representative. So you really had to work hard to get around. Anyway, that was a much poorer time than we live in now. We also find ourselves poor now and then, but we are really super rich compared to then. And my mother died when I was nine. And I was the oldest of three children. Then you feel a bit of responsibility. But when you're nine, that's not a responsibility you can take. My father remarried, but he did it more for us than for himself. So that didn't go well either. So he divorced again afterwards. He lost his job. So it didn't go well at home.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

But that seems very traumatic to me.

Tom Middendorp

Yes, that had quite an impact. And what you got out of it, as a young person, is that on the one hand, you take more responsibility, but on the other hand, you start to shield yourself. Because you're left in the middle of it all. Your mother left you. Your father remarried. Your wife left you. You get family help, they also leave you. So every time you feel like you want to give in to someone, they leave you. So you feel left in the middle of it all. That's why you're less emotionally affected by people. And it took me a while to break that shield.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Because when you were in the army, were you also looking for a second family? Maybe a little bit of security.

Tom Middendorp

I notice that a lot of soldiers come from families that have similar backgrounds. Not that we're one big house of difficult people now. But it does help. It does help. For me, it was also a new start. Because you've been in the service of Dutch society your whole life. You've always worked for the collective. But the Dutch collective also consists of the hooligans of Feyenoord, people who laugh at the ambulances, the scoundrels. In your time, have you ever stopped yourself from laughing at those people?

Tom Middendorp

No, no. I think a good example follows well. They all show us our best side. And of course there are always people who don't do that. But as long as the majority does it, then those people are included. Or not. But they remain a minority. If they all sit down, we won't get there.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

If you open the newspaper now, do you have the idea that it will be very difficult for you?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, I find that worrying. I just heard a wise man say that peace is often lost long before the war begins.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Okay.

Tom Middendorp

And that's what he meant. That we let the power of our society decay before we really get into trouble. So that fragmentation that we now see in the Netherlands, also leads to a kind of breakdown of our collective power. And that collective power is what we need to get through this crisis. Whether it's refugees, or whatever we're dealing with, we'll have to get through it together. And I think that's the danger of polarization, that it's becoming more difficult to get through it together. So I really hope that we can make sure that we don't let it get too far. It's part of democracy. You don't have to agree with everything. And I'll protect that. I'll protect the freedom of speech. I think it's super important that we have that. But let's also respect each other. You can have quite different opinions, but let's talk to each other, respect each other, and see how we can get through this together.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Okay. We also found something else in the research. There was a profile about you in De Trouw in 2014, and there was the following quote. When he was married for 25 years, his two students calculated for him how often he was absent. Do you remember how many years was under the line?

Tom Middendorp

Well, I calculated it for them myself, because they didn't find such a point.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Okay. And how many exercises did you do?

Tom Middendorp

I missed about a third of their lives.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

A third?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, a third. Just that you're on exercises, on broadcasts, internationally, you know, I was placed in Germany, in America. Most of the time my family went with me, but sometimes not.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Did you think that was a high price to pay for the safety of the Netherlands?

Tom Middendorp

No, I didn't experience it as a price. It only becomes a price when it has a negative impact on your family. Your family grows up there. My youngest daughter was born when I was in Germany. She just doesn't know better. And every three years we moved. She didn't know better, we didn't know better, so you get used to it. And you get used to that military life. And if you grow up there, and you can get on with it together, then it's not a price. But at some point we noticed that for our children, where we lived in America, I noticed that my children who went to secondary school, found it more difficult to bond because they left every time.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Yes, you might have recognized that.

Tom Middendorp

And I recognized that, indeed. So then we said, now we're going to live in a fixed place, for them. And we started living in the middle of the country where we still live now. And from there I started working. It did mean that I either had to travel a long time, or that I was interned. In the last ten years of my career I was interned.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

So you didn't live at home?

Tom Middendorp

No, only on the weekends. But then they were a lot older, then they started studying. So it differed a bit per phase of their lives. We found a formula that we could follow.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Let's talk about your career during those 38 years. When we look at your CV, it's impressive, you quickly made a career. For example when you were promoted to CDS. You took a few steps forward, we read in the newspaper. Is your career the straight line that it seems?

Tom Middendorp

No.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Can you give an example?

Tom Middendorp

No, it's not for anyone. A career is not a goal in itself. And a career will always fall and rise. No matter how successful someone seems, let's assume that he has hit his head a hundred times.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Do you have an example?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, when I was very young. You come from the KMA, or you become commander of a unit. You want to prove yourself. You are ambitious, you want to show that you can do it well. But you put the bar pretty high. For myself, I was able to reach the bar. But the people around me thought it was unachievable.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

What happened then?

Tom Middendorp

I kept an eye on it. I kept going. At some point, you look around you and you see people leaving. You can't follow them anymore. They lose trust in you. And then you're left alone. I had that a few times. I didn't learn the lesson in one go. I had to hit my head a hundred times before I could keep an eye on it. That's how I learned how important it is to keep a good feeling with your people. And to put the bar at an achievable height. I also learned how important it is not to take one big step towards a huge goal, but to take it in three small steps. Go step by step. And adjust it along the way. Keep a good feeling with your people. I discovered a trick that worked well for me. When I joined a new function, a new group of people, a new unit, you always expect to be the first one to step up and say we're all going in that direction. Like Koerig said. And I'd say I'd love to work with you. It's great to be here. I have certain values and norms but I want to talk to you first. I want to hear where we stand and where you think we should go before I make a decision. I took a few weeks off in the beginning. I visited all the sub-units and talked to the people. Within those two weeks I had a perfect feeling of where the club was. I got a lot of insight into where they thought we should go. I got a lot of insight into the problems they were facing. I got a lot of insight into their ideas of solutions. I collected that and gathered all the leaders of the club and I said thank you, this is the image I see. This is what I hear. I look in the mirror and I've missed something. Is it complete? Usually within two minutes you agree. Then you have a common starting point. I also hear a lot of great ideas from you people. So we can tackle it this way and then you start the discussion and you come to a course together. Within a very short period you have a perfect assessment of where you stand and you have a strategy. And then you go for it. I've been to all of you and we're going to do this. And then they think, he also tells my story. I recognize that. My idea is in there. You have support, you have acceptance and everyone goes like a banana. That's a management trick that you have to apply. Very good, and that's what you learned from your headbutt. That all comes from one headbutt.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

I see it's time for the first question. In the time that your commander was a combatant, the average Dutchman didn't care much about what happened with defense but it didn't have to cost too much. So it was up to you to create one of the five jobs. Now you have a huge appreciation for defense. How does it feel to be right afterwards?

Tom Middendorp

I'm glad that the tide has turned. I'm also glad that it happens quite on time. Ukraine was the wake-up call here and luckily it wasn't a wake-up call in our own country. Because then we were too late. We had that in the Second World War on the Grebberberg. All the soldiers were on their bikes and an old rifle on the Grebberberg to stop the tank brigades. Which just didn't work. So then we had that wake-up call too late. Now we have it on time. And I hope that we will learn the right lesson here. And so far I see it happening. The question is, how long will it last? Because that's a bit of my concern. Now everyone thinks Ukraine is important. And now they are investing in defense. In two years, when Ukraine is over. We have new elections. We have to cut costs. Then that memory is completely gone. Then we will make a new start. And then we will just make the old mistakes again. That's my concern. And that's why I think it's important that now in the House there is a discussion to save the defense budget in a law. We have agreed in the NAVO 2% of our gross national product we spend on defense. Now let's put that in a law as a bottom line. Then it will not become a toy in the political mess that we will see again every few years. That's just going to happen again. We have already shown that. And that's what I'm worried about.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Then we go to your book. After you said goodbye to Defense, you climbed into the pen and wrote this book, Climate General. Now you had a very special life. You could write about any topic. That was interesting. Why did you write a book about climate change?

Tom Middendorp

It's also a bit of a book about my life. The first half of the book is about a lot of experiences. Experiences in all kinds of mission areas. But experiences that I later started to relate to climate. Because in those mission areas I have experienced what the impact of the climate is. When the commander was in Uruzgan, we fought against the Taliban. The biggest battles we fought were in a village called Chora. We had to fight for days to get the Taliban out of there. I think the hardest battles since the Second World War were fought in the Netherlands. In the end, we chased the Taliban away. But we found out that the problems in the village were not solved. There were tensions there and that the Taliban could return at any moment. It took a while before we realized where it came from. It turned out to be water scarcity. There were farmers who needed water and there was a shortage of water. We looked for a solution. We flew in some experts. Reservists who were in the water sector. We found a solution. Only when the solution was accepted by everyone, the Taliban could not return. A year later, I could walk through the main street of Chora with very little security. For me, that was an eye-opener. First of all, we are often dealing with symptom conflict. We go to conflict to solve the problem. But in fact, you are fighting parties who are quarreling with each other. That is good. But they are quarreling for a reason. There is something behind it. Those are the driving forces. Why is there a conflict? Those are the root causes. I think it is very important that there are more eyes for those root causes. A very important root cause is conflicts. I have seen that in other mission areas. That is what I write about in this book. At some point, I started to expose that to the public.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Can you describe the three most concrete threats for the Netherlands?

Tom Middendorp

Yes. But let's go back. I have been a commander-in-chief for five and a half years. You are in the military committees of the US and other countries. That is quite a lot. For five and a half years, you meet each other a few times a year. The word climate has fallen zero times in five and a half years. So that says something about how far we had to get on this topic. When I first published this, it gave a huge stir. It gave a political stir. Climate was a bit of a green-left theme. Just before the elections? Yes. A general from the Green Party told me that climate was very important. That gave a stir. The minister was called to the House to explain what I was saying and whether I spoke on behalf of the cabinet. It gave a stir in the media. The CDS predicted a climate war. It went viral, right? Yes, it went viral on social media. The only time ever, by the way. I was blamed by all kinds of climate-activist groups. You are hijacking our theme. You only want to use it to increase our defense budget. You are not allowed to make a safety theme out of it. Everyone was very upset. That's where the nickname Climate General or Green General came from. I took that nickname with honor.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Why do you think you were the first to find out? Because there were more people who thought maybe it had something to do with each other.

Tom Middendorp

I saw in the other mission video how the IS occupied the Mosul Dam in Iraq. The water distribution of Iraq and how they used the Mosul Dam as a means of power to the people. Either you work with them or you don't get water. Period. The people had no choice. Without water you die. That's how you saw that climate and water scarcity and food scarcity can be used as a means of conflict and also as a reason for conflict. In Somalia I saw how the drought drove people away and how they became pirates. In Mali I saw how the drought made people desperate and how they switched to extremism and how the country reached a conflict.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

I have a question about that. You were on a mission to the Sahel region in Africa. You have been to that region. At the moment there is a conflict in that region, in Sudan. You point out a cause of conflict. Climate change. You say it is a risk multiplier. A factor that reinforces a conflict. Can you explain how in this conflict in Sudan where we see something in the news every day how climate change is the risk multiplier?

Tom Middendorp

I think it's a risk multiplier. There are a lot of causes behind conflicts. Often it is a failing government. It is often economic vulnerability that people have little money to get around. It is often dissatisfaction that children can't go to school. There are a lot of factors. Corruption often played a role. Gender inequality played a role. There are a lot of reasons for friction in a country. Tribal contradictions can also be very important. They can lead to conflicts. What climate change does is that it chases all those reasons. Because of climate change you take away what people still have. Farmers find it more and more difficult to make money on their land. The cattle die of drought. What do people do then? They are driven to despair. They don't have many choices. There are no alternatives. They go to the cities. They migrate. It chases all the existing tensions that already exist. They are further strengthened by this effect. That is the multiplier. That is the multiplying effect of climate change. It is not the only cause. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it can be a root cause of a conflict.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Do you have an example?

Tom Middendorp

Often it is one of the multiple causes of a conflict.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Do you have an example where you say if there had been no climate change then that conflict would not have existed?

Tom Middendorp

No, not yet. You could say that there are some potentials. For example in Egypt and Ethiopia. Ethiopia is building a dam in the Nile. Egypt is very nervous because they get 97% of their drinking water from the Nile. And the entire population lives in the Nile. It is just one big desert. The Nile is a green area. There are two countries that are back. Sudan and Ethiopia. They are building a huge Renaissance dam in the same Nile. You can imagine that Egypt is very nervous. If you were the commander in chief of Egypt would you occupy that dam? A commander in chief does not decide that. There are always politicians who have to talk to each other. But if they do not come out they can lead to conflicts. Because Egypt has threatened that if this continues we will attack. In that case it can become a cause of conflict.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

You are also active in the Sahel region with a project.

Tom Middendorp

Yes, another project. I have never been to the Sahel. I have led the missions that were also in the Sahel. Before there is a wrong picture. I am involved in the Sahel region. For me the Sahel region is like a canary in the coal mine. It is an indicator. What we saw in the Sahel region was the disorienting effect of climate change.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

You call it climate disorientation?

Tom Middendorp

I call it climate disorientation because it puts societies at risk. More and more in Southern Europe. I have seen that. What we see there in the Sahel region can also happen in other regions of the world. It can also happen in the Middle East, in South Asia, in South America. In other ways, but the effects are the same. In that sense it is a kind of warning of what we will see in the world. Because we will have to deal with much longer periods of drought and shorter periods of very intense rainfall. Both cause disasters.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

How is it in Southern Europe, where droughts only get worse? Will that also become a conflict region?

Tom Middendorp

Hopefully not. Fortunately, the EU has more means to help those countries to be resistant to climate change. I think that should happen more on the solutions side. How can we increase the resistance to climate change so that we are not confronted with all the effects we just talked about. We also see it happening in Europe. We speak now, there is drought. In France, parts of the country are being shut down because there is not enough water. Last year, farmers had to walk to the sea every day to get water to keep their cattle alive. In France. It is getting so close. This is just the beginning of the real effects of climate change. We have to take this very seriously.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Let's go back to the concrete threats for the Netherlands. Do floods, droughts, climate refugees have to walk to the IJsselmeer?

Tom Middendorp

Who knows. We have the luxury of living in a very moderate climate. We live in a delta region. Water is our problem because of floods. Our whole country is focused on getting rid of water as soon as possible. We have optimized this. We are leading in the world in terms of water management. In the Netherlands, we are also being confronted with droughts. We have to learn how to keep the water. That is a new challenge for us. We have learned how to efficiently transport the water and how to prevent it from flooding. Now we have to learn how to keep it. We are smart enough to learn how to do this. Fortunately, we have the means to do this. Peak situations can arise. We have seen floods in Limburg. The Netherlands is not on its own. The rivers come from Europe. When there is a lot of rainfall, when there is a lot of melting water, the rivers are being built more and more densely. The water has little space. It has to go through the pipeline of the river. Then you have floods that also reach the villages and the cities.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

It strikes me that when you talk about other parts of the world, you are less concerned. Do I have to see this book as a warning for the consequences in the rest of the world that we do not recognize well?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, especially in the rest of the world it will hit, but it will have an impact on the Netherlands. If you ask what the direct impact is, then of course it is the sea level rise that we have to protect against and also the floods on the rivers. There are mechanisms for this. I am less concerned about this because we have money for this, we have billions for this. We have the knowledge, we have the skills. We will succeed. I am more concerned about the indirect effect.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Which are the indirect effects?

Tom Middendorp

One is that climate change cannot be seen apart from a few other trends. One is the carbon scarcity. The second is the enormous population growth in the world. The population in the world will double in this century. This means that we will also have a doubling demand for water, food, goods. While the availability of raw materials is getting smaller. So there is a gap between demand and supply. And if we cannot bridge that gap, this will lead to conflicts, competition about access to raw materials. This will lead to all kinds of conflicts. This is one concern. And this affects the Netherlands, absolutely. The second is the indirect effects in the regions around us. We just talked about the Sahel region. This leads to migration flows. The World Bank predicts that migration flows will increase to 200-300 million within 20-30 years. After Europe. If you see how we are already struggling with a few thousand migrants, you can imagine the enormous demand for Europe, of course. But it will always be more than now. So it will be a big demand for Europe. It also leads to much more instability around us. We didn't talk about Asia, but in Asia it is very vulnerable to floods. There is the world's factory. We have seen with Corona, that if those supply lines with Asia get disrupted, what an effect that has on our economy and on our trade and on our delivery times. We are very worried about that. Our iPads will arrive later. But that is just a very small example compared to the impact that climate change can have on those same supply lines. So it can also have enormous economic disruptive effects. In addition, it leads, especially in the regions around us, to much more instability and conflicts. Also to more extremism and to more organized crime. And that immediately comes here on the street, because we are dealing with increased terrorism threats and with increased forms of organized crime that we have to deal with. And also with increased internal tensions. If there are more migrants, there will be more insecurity. We already see the polarization in the Netherlands. That will lead to more internal tensions in the Netherlands. And those are indirect effects that can be related to climate change for an important part. And that is what I mean by how it affects us. And that is why I worry about those external effects.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Yes, yes, yes. Because in the book you call that the clamp. Europe is actually clamped between unstable regions.

Tom Middendorp

Yes, it is a kind of belt of instability around Europe. If you look at where Defense has carried out most of its missions so far, then it is in that belt. And climate change will make that belt much more unstable. It will cause more conflicts in that belt. And there are also our offset markets, there are our supply lines. Our economy is largely dependent on that belt. And on stability in that belt. So where it can hurt the most, that's where it hits the hardest. And that is why it is important that we put this much more central in our security policy. For me it is clear, climate change is just the issue of the coming decades. And that is also starting to be recognized at the national level. If you look at the national security strategy that was issued a month ago, then it is part of that. It is one of the central themes. But that also means that climate change in your foreign policy should be much more central. Because now, in the Netherlands, the foreign policy is often very polluted. The Ministry of Agriculture has foreign policy, but it has its own foreign policy. Education also has foreign policy. Defense also has foreign policy. Foreign affairs also have foreign policy. We try to coordinate that, but they all have their own programs. If we put climate change centrally, what we do abroad, it must contribute to making those countries around us more stable against climate change. And for the rest, everyone can contribute their own part. Then I think you will get a lot more out of our efforts. And that you can also help prevent a lot of this misery.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Do you think that the 100 billion that has been allocated for help to developing countries to make their climate more sustainable, is a good idea?

Tom Middendorp

I support the Global Center for Adaptation. That is the driving head office in Rotterdam. And what they do is develop billions of programs to make those fragile regions in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, South America more sustainable against climate change. And they are going to put a lot of effort into that. But they also find out that those programs are often in regions that are also vulnerable to conflicts. So you have to do that in a way that it does not aggravate the substance to conflict, but just reduces it. So for me, adaptation programs can also be a means of conflict prevention. If you do that in a good way, then it brings stability. Then it prevents conflicts. And as a soldier, I know what the price is of a conflict. I've seen people stumble. I've seen people get hurt. And the more we can prevent that, the better it is. So I think it is very important that we invest in preventing future conflicts. And that is what adaptation is all about.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Let's open the floor for questions from the audience. If you are inspired. Jump up. Sir with the dark blue shirt.

Audience Member

I have a question. If you look at the political field, then you see that populism is rising quite a bit. Do you see that as a threat in the coming to a responsible policy around defense and abroad?

Tom Middendorp

Yes. We were just talking about it, but I think that you need more solidarity in order to tackle these kinds of problems. We need to come to common answers, also in migration, climate, all kinds of social issues. We have a beautiful society where everyone can have their opinion. But let's protect that with each other. We have a famous polder model. The polder model is about bringing different opinions together. Let's cherish the power of the polder model and use it to deal with these kinds of problems. Polarization doesn't help because at some point you won't listen to each other anymore. And I think that's wrong. You can have different opinions, that's good. But you have to listen to each other.

Audience Member

Yes. I'm a bit younger than you. For me, the war in Ukraine or the invasion of Ukraine is the first time that I realize that there is a conflict in the European mainland. What role does climate change play in the invasion of Ukraine?

Tom Middendorp

Not a direct role. The war didn't start because of climate change, nor was it driven by climate change. It mostly started because of Putin who wanted to invade the country for his own reasons. But climate played a role in the background. Yesterday I was in Vienna in a big congress with Arnold Schwarzenegger in one chair. I will be back. And Klitschko is in Kiev who is a former world boxing champion and mayor of Kiev. And he also indicated that there is a conflict in the climate of this war because all our agricultural lands are being poisoned by this war. Our groundwater is being poisoned and polluted. So we have a lot of problems. It also directly affects the food lines of the world. Ukraine is the grain shed of the world, together with a part of Russia. That is now being threatened which you immediately feel in Africa. The food shortages in Ukraine lead to conflicts in Africa. In the whole of the Arab Spring this led to this. Indirectly there are a lot of relations between the climate and Ukraine. There is also a positive relationship because of Ukraine and the energy crisis the energy transition accelerated. We all want to be independent of Russia, of Russian gas and oil. So everyone is putting panels on their roofs and everyone is working on energy measures. And that is a good development unfortunately because of a war. But I think that the effects in that region will get bigger. If you consider that the Arctic region will be gone in five years, then we won't have an Arctic region anymore. It will be one big open area with a lot of groundwater. You will see that there will be a conflict around that groundwater. Because of the ice roads in Russia the railways will open. They are moving a fleet from the Black Sea to the North. To the Arctic region. So they can open the oceans from there. So you will see a lot of military shifts because of climate change in that region. So not directly related to this conflict but it will become a factor in future conflicts. Also in that region.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Okay, then we will take a look at Defensie. There are still a few questions but maybe we will get to that later. Maybe after the interview you can look it up. Because in the book you also talk about the greenness of Defensie. The army is by far the biggest polluter of the Dutch government and of many governments abroad. You propose solutions to make the army greener. But the main goal of Defensie is to protect the territory and the allies. If Defensie sends a big part of the budget to sustainability aren't you afraid that the impact of the army will be less compared to countries that don't have sustainability on their agenda?

Tom Middendorp

That is a concern of every military. They want to make it sustainable but when you have to drive an electric tank that can only drive 20 km you don't make much progress. So you have to do it in a way that you can keep doing your job and do better in advance. But I don't think that is an excuse to not do it. I see it as an excuse for some. We can't do our job as well so let's keep the sustainability out of the door and let others do it. I don't like that. Fortunately I see a change in Defensie and I think that Defensie can contribute to that. Defensie can also play other roles. Defensie can do something about climate insights. For example by integrating climate in the insights that we make. Then you can get more insight on the potential consequences of climate change you can anticipate and prevent. Defensie can help to build on climate change in an integrated way. We can fill in the safety part of the picture. That is the insight side. We can also help with adaptation to all the programmes that are happening in Africa and the Middle East to take the safety dimension into account in the programmes. So that you do it in a way that doesn't lead to more conflicts but to fewer conflicts. We have the knowledge for that and you have to use it to make decisions and make plans. But Defensie will also have to protect its own vital infrastructure in the Netherlands. The marina in Den Helder is also affected by sea level rise. So we also have to contribute to better protecting ourselves. So that we can function in a changing climate. And I think Defensie has to help in the mitigation side. That is the return of the CO2 emissions that we just talked about. And a big part of the government emissions comes from Defensie. There is no company in the Netherlands that emits more than Defensie. We also have a lot of ships, a lot of planes and a lot of vehicles and tanks. And they emit a lot of fossil fuels. And Shell is also in the Netherlands. Can you imagine? Yes, we ask for that ourselves because we fill up our tanks ourselves. So we have to look at ourselves first. But I think Defensie can contribute a lot. And I also think that Defensie can be a platform for innovation. So Defensie can as an infrastructure like it happens in society use the same technology and use the same solutions. Defensie can also green all smaller vehicles like it happens in society. That does not cost your operational feasibility. You can just go along with the developments. Where it gets more difficult are the very heavy capacities. The planes, the ships, the tanks. All of these things need resources for which there are no good green alternatives. And there you have to focus on research and development. How can we develop a future marine ship that becomes self-sufficient? How great would that be? The moment you can make a ship that is self-sufficient, it has enormous operational advantages. The ship does not have to go to the port every time to stock up. It can just keep sailing. All of a sudden it becomes something that also has operational advantages and at the same time you can contribute to the climate. That is how we have to deal with this topic. We have to join hands with the industries to see how we can shape research and development together in a way that makes us more self-sufficient.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

In the first version of this book and in previous interviews you call this ship. This is a hobby horse for you. It is a very eloquent example. You have been doing this for a few years now. If there is someone in the Netherlands who can put this together, it is you. Does this industry want to do this? Does it say to you, we have seen this, we are going to do this?

Tom Middendorp

I see the industry is now on its knees. That does not mean that it will be there tomorrow. We are just sitting now. That change has come into motion and in my opinion it is almost irreversible. There will be a change. In five or ten years we will all be driving electric. A few years later all trucks will be driving electric. Or hydrogen or something else. The innovation will continue. And within a few years something will also happen with the aviation sector. So we are all in this mess and Defensie cannot get out of this mess. We cannot keep driving oldtimers on diesel while the whole world is going in a different direction. That will be priceless. So Defensie will have to be part of this mess.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

But do they see that themselves?

Tom Middendorp

Yes. I don't see Defensie spending money yet. That is special. I am working on it. I don't have it in my own hands. But Defensie is now looking at how we can build in those requirements in our acquisition. And Defensie has a very large resource in their hands. They have a lot of money, the Defensie budget. That money is spent on investments for the future. And then you have to make these kinds of requirements for the future. And that will happen now. It is not happening yet, but it will happen. The policy is being written now. And I am confident that the change will happen. It may be faster for me. I am impatient about it. But it will happen. And I also see that the industries are also changing that switch. They have held it back for a long time. But when I came to the aviation show for example, I was in Farmborough in England last year. The central theme of all those aviation companies that are developing for future aviation was ESG. And ESG is about environment. They are all looking at what kind of technology can help us to make the aviation sector more sustainable for the future. And what we can start with is with biofuel. With biofuel you can still use the same vehicles, but in a much cleaner way. So you can start with that in the near future.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

We still have 5 minutes left. We are always kept short in time. So we still have 2 final questions and then we can do something in public. What I was wondering, I read this book and I thought how is it possible that people who were trained to identify safety risks were not the first to warn about the effects of climate change?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, actually it was like that. The American intelligence agencies warned about this more than 20 years ago. In 2003? In the beginning of 2000 they warned about this. I lead a worldwide network of safety leaders who are worried about this. And my counterpart in America worked in the Pentagon. He was here 20 years ago. But how is it possible? For me this is a bit far from the bed show. It was the same for me until 7 years ago. I said that climate is important but not for me. We have to take care of safety and climate is a different ministry that is responsible for that. So it was a bit like I have enough on my plate and I have to cut back. And now we see that it is something that affects all ministries where everyone has to take responsibility. And that is what is happening now.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Do you sometimes wonder if we would have been there in 2003?

Tom Middendorp

Yes, I think we can still be on time. I think we can still prevent a lot of misery. We now have the luxury of having a lot of knowledge. We now know and I have never experienced that with conflicts. We can already see the next conflicts in the area of climate. As a consequence of climate. We have never had that with other conflicts. Most came as a surprise. So we now have the knowledge and we know that it will come. That also gives us the responsibility to do something about it and to prevent it. And that is what I am committed to to get people moving.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

And what do you think is the best way to convey that message? Because in your career, serviceability and obedience were central. So we also wondered how you look at an organization like Extinction Rebellion which stands with a big heart for the environment but also violates the law. Is that the right way to do it, do you think?

Tom Middendorp

I have discussed that with them. And we came to the conclusion that we stand for the same goal. We both stand for it, but we do it in different ways. And I have some difficulties with the way they do it sometimes. I think the protests they do and the arresting, I think that's all fine. They can do that to me. But the moment all kinds of hooligans join in and there is a negative spinoff, that it will reflect negatively on themselves then it becomes counterproductive. And I do it my own way. My way is to involve people. We are now in a society that is entirely based on fossil fuels. We have to transform that society. And you can say that society is doing it all wrong and it's not right. But that doesn't change them. So you have to involve them in that change. You have to show them that it is necessary. And you have to give them new opportunities to become part of the solution. And that's what I stand for.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Yes. I think we'll do one more audience question. And then we'll ask you for advice. Let's see. You were very quick.

Audience Member

Hello, I have a question. The most important role of the Dutch Ministry of Defence is to preserve the Dutch interests. And to ensure the safety in the Netherlands. When you go abroad it's all about the interests of the Netherlands. At the same time we as Dutch people are also big polluters. You often hear that if everyone lived like a Dutch then we would need, I don't know how many, but so many earthworms, three and a half or something. How does that exactly coincide with the fact that the Ministry of Defence wants to preserve the Dutch interests? How does that feel for you? Because in the end we as the Netherlands want to keep everything clean but still continue to grow. For me it's very difficult to coincide. And I would like to know how you view that.

Tom Middendorp

Well, actually it all comes together in two worlds. Because I do protect the Netherlands, the Dutch interests, but the Netherlands is also a polluting country. So what I'm showing is that if we continue to pollute we are putting ourselves in danger. We are going to suffer a lot from that. So we have to stop polluting. We have to ensure that we move forward towards a circular economy. If we want to bridge the gap that I described in the beginning we have to make ourselves more dependent on raw materials. At the moment everything we produce, not only in the Netherlands but in the world, only 8% is reused. And that's millions of tons of stuff per year. 92% is thrown away or burned. 92%! And every year we are going to produce millions of tons again. Look how many clothes we have in the closet, how many shoes we have at home, how often you wear them. We are all focused on consumption and consumption. And we have to close that circle. We have to ensure that we move towards circularity and that we can reuse a lot more materials and that we become less dependent on those raw materials. And with that we prevent a lot of insecurity. With that we prevent a lot of the things we discussed here. So for me those two come together. But it does start with making the polluting world that I help protect in the Netherlands less polluting. And with that the environment becomes less threatening for us. So those two are really connected to each other.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Then we have a room full of young people who are listening to you for an hour and of course think I want to contribute to this. What can these people do best? Do they have to join Extinction Rebellion? Do they have to join the army? What kind of advice do you have?

Tom Middendorp

I think they have to follow their own heart. You have to look where you want to make a difference and where you can make a difference. And you have to follow that line. And whether it's in defense, outside of defense or Extinction Rebellion doesn't really matter to me. As long as you stay close to yourself. I have noticed that by finding a goal in your life, a purpose in your life which also has a broader added value has brought me a lot of satisfaction. I really hope that you will also find such a purpose. And I would say think big, act small, start somewhere. So dare to think big. Climate change is of course a huge problem and for many a too big problem. You think, yes, that's so huge, what can I do about it? I'm just a simple student or I'm just a simple general. What can I do about it? But I have seen that we can all make a difference. I'm going to give one more example from the book of an artist, a sculptor who came to me and said I can solve the world's water problem. I can get water out of desert air. And that sounded too fantastic to be true. And actually I wanted to wish him good luck and go on. But I thought, let me give him a chance, if this works. And I took him to Mali. He tested his development there. He succeeded in getting a glass of water out of the air. With very little electricity, on a solar panel. And that's unique in the world. A lot of companies look at that, but they need a lot of electricity. Only a glass is not that much. But he kept on developing, the fans kept on helping him. And a few years ago he had a device, this big, with a solar panel. That got 20-30 liters of water out of the air per day. With that you can maintain a family in the Sahel region. And last year at the World Expo in Dubai he had a bigger version and there he produced 1000 liters of water per day. And so you see that one man, an artist, with a brilliant idea, who keeps on chasing it in his own way, because he kept on doing it for 10 years, can make a huge difference in the world. So I would say, keep on believing in the difference that you can make yourself. One person can make a big difference. And the Chinese proverb is, a lot of small drops form a river. So if we are all those little drops, then a river will come, so keep on believing in it. Keep on following your heart. Dare to think big, but start in your own environment. Start in your own influence. And start above all.

Elias Marseille & Morwenna Heemstra

Such a beautiful note to end on. Mr. Middendorp, thank you very much for sharing your insights. You in the audience, thank you very much for your good questions. On May 24th we will be back. Then we will have Margot Jefferson as our guest, from one to two o'clock. She is an American journalist and author of the books Constructing a Nervous System. I don't want to embarrass you. The book will be published in English and French. So it will be accessible to international students. But also to the general public. I noticed, I am not a writer. If you asked me three years ago if I wanted to write a book, I would have said no. But I noticed that it is a tool to explain things. It is a bit of a storytelling book. So based on all kinds of experiences and examples, it is a complex topic. Climate and safety, how they are related. The second part of the book is about solutions. I find it a bit difficult to only talk about black scenarios. You only hear about SIP. We also have to work on solutions. Especially you have to work on solutions. Because that is your future. I only give a push. I hope I can keep giving a push. So it will be published in English and French. And we are also almost filming it in a documentary. That will happen. It will be beautiful. On the white canvas. We will see. Thank you. Also for the news. Thank you for coming. A big hand for Mr. Middendorp. Thank you. Thank you.

Tom Middendorp werd uitgezonden naar Somalië en verwachtte daar te moeten strijden tegen nietsontziende piraten. Het bleken wanhopige vissers die door klimaatverandering steeds minder inkomsten hebben. In Afghanistan zag hij met eigen ogen hoe de taliban waterschaarste inzette als machtsmiddel.

Daarom besloot hij na zijn aftreden als commandant der strijdkrachten zich te verdiepen in het klimaatprobleem en de veiligheidsrisico’s die deze met zich meebrengt. Inmiddels ziet hij de smeltende ijskappen van de Noordpool als het volgende potentiële oorlogsgebied.

Op 17 Mei 13:00 is Klimaatgeneraal Middendorp te gast bij Room for Discussion om hierover in gesprek te gaan. Kom vooral langs en stel je vragen!